Rare earths and climate change

　　稀土與氣候變化

　　In a hole?

　　陷入了危機?

　　Demand for some rare-earth elements couldrapidly outstrip supply

　　某些稀土元素可能很快會供不應求

　　MANY plans for reducing the world s emissions ofcarbon dioxide-at least, those plans formulated byenvironmentalists who are not of the hair-shirt, back-to-the-caves persuasion-involvepeppering the landscape with wind turbines and replacing petrol-guzzling vehicles withelectric ones charged up using energy gathered from renewable resources. The hope is thatthe level of CO2 in the atmosphere can thus be kept below what is widely agreed to be theupper limit for a tolerable level of global warming, 450 parts per million.

　　許多全球性減排二氧化碳的計劃是要建造星羅棋布的風力渦輪發電機，并以再生能源發電為電動汽車充電，擯棄狂吞汽油的汽車。哦，至少那些并不堅決主張嚴酷節儉、回返穴居社會 [注] 的環保主義者是這樣計劃的。人們希望，這樣一來，大氣中CO2的含量可以保持在百萬分之450以下。人們普遍認為，這就可以讓全球氣候變暖的程度處在可容忍的上限以下。

　　Wind turbines and electric vehicles, however, both rely on dysprosium and neodymium tomake the magnets that are essential to their generators and motors. These two elements,part of a group called the rare-earth metals, have unusual configurations of electronsorbiting their nuclei, and thus unusually powerful magnetic properties. Finding substituteswould be hard. Motors or generators whose magnets were made of other materials would beheavier, less efficient or both.

　　但風力渦輪發電機與電動汽車都要靠鏑與釹來制造對電機和發動機極為關鍵的磁鐵。在這兩種同屬稀土金屬的元素中，圍繞原子核旋轉的電子排列方式很不尋常，因此具有異乎尋常的強大磁性能。很難找到它們的替代品。用其它材料制造磁鐵的發動機或電機或者更為沉重，或者效率不高，或二者兼有。

　　At the moment, that is not too much of a problem. Though a lot of the supply of rare earthscomes from China, whose government has recently been restricting exports , other known sources, such as the now-abandonedMountain Pass mine in California, pictured above, could be brought into play reasonablyquickly. At current levels of demand any problem caused by the geographicalconcentration of supply would thus be an irritating blip rather than an existential crisis.

　　這一問題當前還不甚突出。盡管大量稀土來自中國，而該國政府最近一直在限制出口提起訴訟)，但其它已知礦源，比如現在已放棄開采的加州帕斯山，可以在較短時間內重新開采供貨。按照當前的需求水平，供應來源集中于某地的會引起的任何問題都只不過會讓人煩惱一時，不會造成生存危機。

　　But what if the environmentalists dream came true? Could demand for dysprosium andneodymium then be met? That was the question Randolph Kirchain, Elisa Alonso and FrankField, three materials scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, askedthemselves recently. Their answer, just published in Environmental Science and Technology,is that if wind turbines and electric vehicles are going to fulfil the role environmental plannershave assigned them in reducing emissions of carbon dioxide, using current technologieswould require an increase in the supply of neodymium and dysprosium of more than 700%and 2,600% respectively during the next 25 years. At the moment, the supply of thesemetals is increasing by 6% a year. To match the three researchers projections it wouldactually have to increase by 8% a year for neodymium and 14% for dysprosium.

　　但如果環保主義者的美夢成真了呢?到那時，鏑與釹的需求也會得到滿足嗎?這就是麻省理工學院的三位材料科學家倫道夫?科爾臣、伊利莎?阿隆索和弗蘭克?菲爾德最近向自己提出的問題。他們在最近發表在《環境科學與技術》的文章中給出的回答是：如果要讓風動渦輪發電機和電動汽車以現有科技完成環境規劃者賦予它們的二氧化碳減排使命，在未來25年間，釹與鏑的供給量將需要分別增加600%和 2500% 以上。這兩種金屬現在的年供給量增長為6%;要達到三位研究人員預計的水平，鏑與釹的年供給量實際增長必須分別為14%與8%。

　　That will be hard, particularly for dysprosium. Incremental improvements to motors andgenerators might be expected to bring demand down a bit. But barring a breakthrough inmagnet technology the three researchers figures suggest that the world s geologists would do well to startscouring the planet for rare-earth ores now. If they do not, the mood of the Chinesegovernment may be the least of the headaches faced by magnet manufacturers.

　　這會是很困難的，對鏑來說尤其如此。發動機和發電機的逐步改進可能會讓需求有所下降。但這三位研究人員的數字說明，除非電磁技術發生突破，全世界的地質工作者還是現在就開始掘地三尺，全球搜尋稀土礦為妙。如果他們不這樣做，在令磁鐵制造商頭疼的事情中，中國政府的心情可能是最微不足道的了。

　　Rare earths and climate change

　　稀土與氣候變化

　　In a hole?

　　陷入了危機?

　　Demand for some rare-earth elements couldrapidly outstrip supply

　　某些稀土元素可能很快會供不應求

　　MANY plans for reducing the world s emissions ofcarbon dioxide-at least, those plans formulated byenvironmentalists who are not of the hair-shirt, back-to-the-caves persuasion-involvepeppering the landscape with wind turbines and replacing petrol-guzzling vehicles withelectric ones charged up using energy gathered from renewable resources. The hope is thatthe level of CO2 in the atmosphere can thus be kept below what is widely agreed to be theupper limit for a tolerable level of global warming, 450 parts per million.

　　許多全球性減排二氧化碳的計劃是要建造星羅棋布的風力渦輪發電機，并以再生能源發電為電動汽車充電，擯棄狂吞汽油的汽車。哦，至少那些并不堅決主張嚴酷節儉、回返穴居社會 [注] 的環保主義者是這樣計劃的。人們希望，這樣一來，大氣中CO2的含量可以保持在百萬分之450以下。人們普遍認為，這就可以讓全球氣候變暖的程度處在可容忍的上限以下。

　　Wind turbines and electric vehicles, however, both rely on dysprosium and neodymium tomake the magnets that are essential to their generators and motors. These two elements,part of a group called the rare-earth metals, have unusual configurations of electronsorbiting their nuclei, and thus unusually powerful magnetic properties. Finding substituteswould be hard. Motors or generators whose magnets were made of other materials would beheavier, less efficient or both.

　　但風力渦輪發電機與電動汽車都要靠鏑與釹來制造對電機和發動機極為關鍵的磁鐵。在這兩種同屬稀土金屬的元素中，圍繞原子核旋轉的電子排列方式很不尋常，因此具有異乎尋常的強大磁性能。很難找到它們的替代品。用其它材料制造磁鐵的發動機或電機或者更為沉重，或者效率不高，或二者兼有。

　　At the moment, that is not too much of a problem. Though a lot of the supply of rare earthscomes from China, whose government has recently been restricting exports , other known sources, such as the now-abandonedMountain Pass mine in California, pictured above, could be brought into play reasonablyquickly. At current levels of demand any problem caused by the geographicalconcentration of supply would thus be an irritating blip rather than an existential crisis.

　　這一問題當前還不甚突出。盡管大量稀土來自中國，而該國政府最近一直在限制出口提起訴訟)，但其它已知礦源，比如現在已放棄開采的加州帕斯山，可以在較短時間內重新開采供貨。按照當前的需求水平，供應來源集中于某地的會引起的任何問題都只不過會讓人煩惱一時，不會造成生存危機。

　　But what if the environmentalists dream came true? Could demand for dysprosium andneodymium then be met? That was the question Randolph Kirchain, Elisa Alonso and FrankField, three materials scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, askedthemselves recently. Their answer, just published in Environmental Science and Technology,is that if wind turbines and electric vehicles are going to fulfil the role environmental plannershave assigned them in reducing emissions of carbon dioxide, using current technologieswould require an increase in the supply of neodymium and dysprosium of more than 700%and 2,600% respectively during the next 25 years. At the moment, the supply of thesemetals is increasing by 6% a year. To match the three researchers projections it wouldactually have to increase by 8% a year for neodymium and 14% for dysprosium.

　　但如果環保主義者的美夢成真了呢?到那時，鏑與釹的需求也會得到滿足嗎?這就是麻省理工學院的三位材料科學家倫道夫?科爾臣、伊利莎?阿隆索和弗蘭克?菲爾德最近向自己提出的問題。他們在最近發表在《環境科學與技術》的文章中給出的回答是：如果要讓風動渦輪發電機和電動汽車以現有科技完成環境規劃者賦予它們的二氧化碳減排使命，在未來25年間，釹與鏑的供給量將需要分別增加600%和 2500% 以上。這兩種金屬現在的年供給量增長為6%;要達到三位研究人員預計的水平，鏑與釹的年供給量實際增長必須分別為14%與8%。

　　That will be hard, particularly for dysprosium. Incremental improvements to motors andgenerators might be expected to bring demand down a bit. But barring a breakthrough inmagnet technology the three researchers figures suggest that the world s geologists would do well to startscouring the planet for rare-earth ores now. If they do not, the mood of the Chinesegovernment may be the least of the headaches faced by magnet manufacturers.

　　這會是很困難的，對鏑來說尤其如此。發動機和發電機的逐步改進可能會讓需求有所下降。但這三位研究人員的數字說明，除非電磁技術發生突破，全世界的地質工作者還是現在就開始掘地三尺，全球搜尋稀土礦為妙。如果他們不這樣做，在令磁鐵制造商頭疼的事情中，中國政府的心情可能是最微不足道的了。