Drain or gain? 人才外流，是得還是失?

　　Poor countries can end up benefiting when theirbrightest citizens emigrate 窮國最終會從人才外流中獲益

　　WHEN people in rich countries worry about migration, they tend to think of low-paid incomerswho compete for jobs as construction workers, dishwashers or farmhands. When people indeveloping countries worry about migration, they are usually concerned at the prospect oftheir best and brightest decamping to Silicon Valley or to hospitals and universities in thedeveloped world. These are the kind of workers that countries like Britain, Canada and Australiatry to attract by using immigration rules that privilege college graduates.

　　發(fā)達國家擔心移民，他們通常考慮的是對收入要求較低的移民會和他們競爭就業(yè)崗位，例如建筑工人，洗碗工或是農(nóng)場工人。而發(fā)展中國家擔心移民，則通常考慮的是，他們最優(yōu)秀的人才流入了硅谷，或是發(fā)達國家的一些醫(yī)院和大學。而這些人才正是英國、加拿大、澳大利亞這樣的國家需要的，他們通過優(yōu)待大學生的移民政策來吸引這樣的人才。

　　Lots of studies have found that well-educated people from developing countries are particularlylikely to emigrate. By some estimates, two-thirds of highly educated Cape Verdeans liveoutside the country. A big survey of Indian households carried out in 2004 asked about familymembers who had moved abroad. It found that nearly 40% of emigrants had more than a high-school education, compared with around 3.3% of all Indians over the age of 25. This braindrain has long bothered policymakers in poor countries. They fear that it hurts theireconomies, depriving them of much-needed skilled workers who could have taught at theiruniversities, worked in their hospitals and come up with clever new products for their factoriesto make.

　　很多研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，發(fā)展中國家受過良好教育的人們尤其可能移民。據(jù)估計，三分之二受過良好教育的 CapeVerdeans都居住在國外。2004年對印度家庭展開了一次大范圍調(diào)查，詢問了他們移居國外的家庭成員情況。調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，近40%的移民接受過高等教育，而所有25歲以上的印度人中，這一比例僅為3.3%。這種人才外流的現(xiàn)象長期困擾著窮國的政策制定者們。他們擔心這會有損經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，使得他們喪失亟需的有技能的人才，他們本可在大學里教書，在醫(yī)院里工作，或是研發(fā)出可供生產(chǎn)的新產(chǎn)品。

　　Many now take issue with this view . Several economists reckon that the brain-drain hypothesis fails to account for the effects of remittances, for the beneficial effects of returning migrants, and for the possibility that being able to migrate to greener pastures induces people to get more education. Some argue that once these factors are taken into account, an exodus of highly skilled people could turn out to be a net benefit to the countries they leave. Recent studies of migration from countries as far apart as Ghana, Fiji, India and Romania have found support for this brain gain idea.

　　現(xiàn)在很多人不再認同這個觀點。。有些經(jīng)濟學家認為，人才外流有一些被忽視的好處，例如匯款，歸國移民所帶來的價值，或是移民他國的想法促使了人們接受更多的教育。有些人聲稱，一旦這些因素考慮進去，高技能人才的流出對他們的國家來說可能變成好事。近來對加納，斐濟，印度和羅馬尼亞這四個相距甚遠的國家的研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)了支持這種人才外流有益觀點的證據(jù)。

　　The most obvious way in which migrants repay their homelands is through remittances. Workers from developing countries remitted a total of $325 billion in 2010, according to the World Bank. In Lebanon, Lesotho, Nepal, Tajikistan and a few other places, remittances are more than 20% of GDP. A skilled migrant may earn several multiples of what his income would have been had he stayed at home. A study of Romanian migrants to America found that the average emigrant earned almost $12,000 a year more in America than he would have done in his native land, a huge premium for someone from a country where income per person is around $7,500 .

　　移民回饋他們祖國最常見的方式就是匯款。世行稱，2010年發(fā)展中國家移民的匯款總額達3250億美元。在黎巴嫩，萊索托，尼泊爾，塔吉克斯坦和少數(shù)其它國家，移民的匯款數(shù)額占到了GDP的20%以上。一個技術(shù)移民在他國的人收入可能是在本國的好幾倍。一項關(guān)于美國的羅馬尼亞移民的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，平均地說，移民在美國的年收入比在其本國的收入要高出近12000美元，對于那些來自人均年收入只有約7500美元的國家的移民來說，這是筆不小的數(shù)目。

　　It is true that many skilled migrants have been educated and trained partly at the expense of their governments. Some argue that poor countries should therefore rethink how much they spend on higher education. Indians, for example, often debate whether their government should continue to subsidise the Indian Institutes of Technology , its elite engineering schools, when large numbers of IIT graduates end up in Silicon Valley or on Wall Street. But a new study of remittances sent home by Ghanaian migrants suggests that on average they transfer enough over their working lives to cover the amount spent on educating them several times over. The study finds that once remittances are taken into account, the cost of education would have to be 5.6 times the official figure to make it a losing proposition for Ghana.

　　的確，技術(shù)移民的教育和培訓費有一部分是由他們的政府承擔的。有人稱，窮國們因此應該反思他們究竟應該在高等教育上投入多少。例如，當大批畢業(yè)生最終都去了硅谷或是華爾街時，印度人就政府是否應該繼續(xù)補貼印度技術(shù)研究院經(jīng)常展開爭論，印度技術(shù)研究院是精英工程學院。但是一項關(guān)于加納移民匯款的新研究顯示，平均而已，他們工作生涯中寄回的這些匯款足足是當初教育花費的好幾倍。這項研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，一旦考慮匯款，對加納來說，除非教育成本達到官方數(shù)據(jù)的5.6倍，否則它不會虧本。

　　There are more subtle ways in which the departure of some skilled people may aid poorer countries. Some emigrants would have been jobless had they stayed. Studies have found that unemployment rates among young people with college degrees in countries like Morocco and Tunisia are several multiples of those among the poorly educated, perhaps because graduates are more demanding. Migration may lead to a more productive pairing of peoples skills and jobs. Some of the benefits of this improved match then flow back to the migrants home country, most directly via remittances.

　　技術(shù)移民還可以通過一些微妙的方式來幫助他們貧窮的祖國。如果他們留在祖國的話，弄不好會失業(yè)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，在摩洛哥和突尼斯這樣的國家，擁有大學學歷的年輕人，他們的失業(yè)率是那些低學歷者的好幾倍，也許是因為大學畢業(yè)生對工作的要求更高。移民他國可以使得有技能的人找到更適合他們的工作，而他們的祖國就享受到了這所帶來的部分好處，最直接的方式就是通過匯款。

　　Drain or gain? 人才外流，是得還是失?

　　Poor countries can end up benefiting when theirbrightest citizens emigrate 窮國最終會從人才外流中獲益

　　WHEN people in rich countries worry about migration, they tend to think of low-paid incomerswho compete for jobs as construction workers, dishwashers or farmhands. When people indeveloping countries worry about migration, they are usually concerned at the prospect oftheir best and brightest decamping to Silicon Valley or to hospitals and universities in thedeveloped world. These are the kind of workers that countries like Britain, Canada and Australiatry to attract by using immigration rules that privilege college graduates.

　　發(fā)達國家擔心移民，他們通常考慮的是對收入要求較低的移民會和他們競爭就業(yè)崗位，例如建筑工人，洗碗工或是農(nóng)場工人。而發(fā)展中國家擔心移民，則通常考慮的是，他們最優(yōu)秀的人才流入了硅谷，或是發(fā)達國家的一些醫(yī)院和大學。而這些人才正是英國、加拿大、澳大利亞這樣的國家需要的，他們通過優(yōu)待大學生的移民政策來吸引這樣的人才。

　　Lots of studies have found that well-educated people from developing countries are particularlylikely to emigrate. By some estimates, two-thirds of highly educated Cape Verdeans liveoutside the country. A big survey of Indian households carried out in 2004 asked about familymembers who had moved abroad. It found that nearly 40% of emigrants had more than a high-school education, compared with around 3.3% of all Indians over the age of 25. This braindrain has long bothered policymakers in poor countries. They fear that it hurts theireconomies, depriving them of much-needed skilled workers who could have taught at theiruniversities, worked in their hospitals and come up with clever new products for their factoriesto make.

　　很多研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，發(fā)展中國家受過良好教育的人們尤其可能移民。據(jù)估計，三分之二受過良好教育的 CapeVerdeans都居住在國外。2004年對印度家庭展開了一次大范圍調(diào)查，詢問了他們移居國外的家庭成員情況。調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，近40%的移民接受過高等教育，而所有25歲以上的印度人中，這一比例僅為3.3%。這種人才外流的現(xiàn)象長期困擾著窮國的政策制定者們。他們擔心這會有損經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，使得他們喪失亟需的有技能的人才，他們本可在大學里教書，在醫(yī)院里工作，或是研發(fā)出可供生產(chǎn)的新產(chǎn)品。

　　Many now take issue with this view . Several economists reckon that the brain-drain hypothesis fails to account for the effects of remittances, for the beneficial effects of returning migrants, and for the possibility that being able to migrate to greener pastures induces people to get more education. Some argue that once these factors are taken into account, an exodus of highly skilled people could turn out to be a net benefit to the countries they leave. Recent studies of migration from countries as far apart as Ghana, Fiji, India and Romania have found support for this brain gain idea.

　　現(xiàn)在很多人不再認同這個觀點。。有些經(jīng)濟學家認為，人才外流有一些被忽視的好處，例如匯款，歸國移民所帶來的價值，或是移民他國的想法促使了人們接受更多的教育。有些人聲稱，一旦這些因素考慮進去，高技能人才的流出對他們的國家來說可能變成好事。近來對加納，斐濟，印度和羅馬尼亞這四個相距甚遠的國家的研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)了支持這種人才外流有益觀點的證據(jù)。

　　The most obvious way in which migrants repay their homelands is through remittances. Workers from developing countries remitted a total of $325 billion in 2010, according to the World Bank. In Lebanon, Lesotho, Nepal, Tajikistan and a few other places, remittances are more than 20% of GDP. A skilled migrant may earn several multiples of what his income would have been had he stayed at home. A study of Romanian migrants to America found that the average emigrant earned almost $12,000 a year more in America than he would have done in his native land, a huge premium for someone from a country where income per person is around $7,500 .

　　移民回饋他們祖國最常見的方式就是匯款。世行稱，2010年發(fā)展中國家移民的匯款總額達3250億美元。在黎巴嫩，萊索托，尼泊爾，塔吉克斯坦和少數(shù)其它國家，移民的匯款數(shù)額占到了GDP的20%以上。一個技術(shù)移民在他國的人收入可能是在本國的好幾倍。一項關(guān)于美國的羅馬尼亞移民的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，平均地說，移民在美國的年收入比在其本國的收入要高出近12000美元，對于那些來自人均年收入只有約7500美元的國家的移民來說，這是筆不小的數(shù)目。

　　It is true that many skilled migrants have been educated and trained partly at the expense of their governments. Some argue that poor countries should therefore rethink how much they spend on higher education. Indians, for example, often debate whether their government should continue to subsidise the Indian Institutes of Technology , its elite engineering schools, when large numbers of IIT graduates end up in Silicon Valley or on Wall Street. But a new study of remittances sent home by Ghanaian migrants suggests that on average they transfer enough over their working lives to cover the amount spent on educating them several times over. The study finds that once remittances are taken into account, the cost of education would have to be 5.6 times the official figure to make it a losing proposition for Ghana.

　　的確，技術(shù)移民的教育和培訓費有一部分是由他們的政府承擔的。有人稱，窮國們因此應該反思他們究竟應該在高等教育上投入多少。例如，當大批畢業(yè)生最終都去了硅谷或是華爾街時，印度人就政府是否應該繼續(xù)補貼印度技術(shù)研究院經(jīng)常展開爭論，印度技術(shù)研究院是精英工程學院。但是一項關(guān)于加納移民匯款的新研究顯示，平均而已，他們工作生涯中寄回的這些匯款足足是當初教育花費的好幾倍。這項研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，一旦考慮匯款，對加納來說，除非教育成本達到官方數(shù)據(jù)的5.6倍，否則它不會虧本。

　　There are more subtle ways in which the departure of some skilled people may aid poorer countries. Some emigrants would have been jobless had they stayed. Studies have found that unemployment rates among young people with college degrees in countries like Morocco and Tunisia are several multiples of those among the poorly educated, perhaps because graduates are more demanding. Migration may lead to a more productive pairing of peoples skills and jobs. Some of the benefits of this improved match then flow back to the migrants home country, most directly via remittances.

　　技術(shù)移民還可以通過一些微妙的方式來幫助他們貧窮的祖國。如果他們留在祖國的話，弄不好會失業(yè)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，在摩洛哥和突尼斯這樣的國家，擁有大學學歷的年輕人，他們的失業(yè)率是那些低學歷者的好幾倍，也許是因為大學畢業(yè)生對工作的要求更高。移民他國可以使得有技能的人找到更適合他們的工作，而他們的祖國就享受到了這所帶來的部分好處，最直接的方式就是通過匯款。