人口定時炸彈：日本人“瀕危”的8個跡象
要論世界上壽命最長的國家，日本總能遙遙領先。但是對于生育率極低的日本來說，這一長壽優勢只能加劇惡性循環，甚至催生出了不少怪象，比如，成人紙尿褲銷量超過嬰兒紙尿褲，監獄變成養老院，和朋友結婚等等。專家估算，長此以往，日本人將在3776年滅絕。
Japan is dealing with what economists call a "demographic time bomb."
日本正面臨經濟學家所謂的“人口定時炸彈”威脅。
Through a vicious cycle of low fertility and low consumer spending, the country's economy has gradually shrunk over the last 25 years.
受制于低生育率和低消費性開支的惡性循環，日本的經濟在過去25年正逐漸縮水。
People are living longer, and they're heaping greater social-security costs onto younger generations who aren't having kids to replace them — thereby furthering the cycle.
人們的壽命變長了，老人們滾雪球一樣的社保負擔被轉嫁到了年輕一代的身上，而年輕一代又沒有生育出可以替代自己的孩子，于是這種惡性循環進一步加劇。
Here are some of the most visible signs in daily life that the time bomb is ticking.
以下是最能反映日本人口炸彈危機的日常跡象。
There are now 68,000 people over 100 years old.
現在日本100歲以上的老人已經有68000位。
To put Japan's widespread aging in perspective, 2024 marked the 47th straight year that the country has broken its own record for the number of centenarians, or people living past their 100th birthday.
要想清楚意識到日本普遍老齡化的現狀，有一個事實是你必須知道的：2024年是日本百歲老人數量連續第47年打破紀錄。
In 2024, there were roughly 65,000 centenarians out of the total population of 127 million. The new total for 2024 stands at 67,824, The Asahi Shimbun reported in September.
2024年，日本1.27億人口中，大約有65000位百歲老人。根據《朝日資訊》今年9月報道的新數據，2024年百歲老人總數達到了67824位。
Japan has the highest rate of centenarians out of any country, with 4.8 per 100,000 people. The US, the country with the most overall, has 2.2 per 100,000.
日本的百歲老人占比是全世界最高的，每10萬人中就有4.8個百歲老人。在百歲老人總數最多的美國，每10萬人中才有2.2個百歲老人。
Adult diapers outsell baby diapers.
成人紙尿褲銷量超過嬰兒紙尿褲。
Ever since 2011, sales of adult diapers in Japan have outpaced those of baby diapers.
自從2011年以來，日本成人紙尿褲的銷量就超過了嬰兒紙尿褲。
The trend reflects just how big the cohort of senior citizens is: People over 65 make up a larger demographic than any other in Japan. Of the 127.11 million people, about 26.7% of them are seniors.
這一潮流反映出老年群體是多么龐大：日本65歲以上的人比其他任何年齡段的人都要多。日本共有1.27億人口，而老年人就占了26.7%。
That proportion is up 3.7 percentage points from six years ago.
老年人占的比例相比六年前上升了3.7個百分點。
2024 marked a 117-year low for fertility.
2024年見證了117年來日本生育率的新低。
Ever since 1899, the annual number of births in Japan had exceeded one million — until 2024.
自從1899年以來，日本每年出生的嬰兒人數都超過了100萬——這個趨勢一致持續到2024年。
When government officials conducted a tally of total births last year, they counted about 20,000 shy of the benchmark. The death count, meanwhile, fell at around 1.3 million.
去年政府官員開展了年度出生人口統計，他們發現出生人口比基準少了2萬人。與此同時，死亡人口比往年減少了130萬人。
Young people have started "granny dumping."
年輕人開始“棄老”。
The word ubasute is an old Japanese word that translates to "granny dumping," and according to Japanese news sources, it's making a comeback.
“棄老”是日本的一個古老的詞，可翻譯為“拋棄老奶奶”。據日本媒體報道，這個詞又再度時興起來。
It describes the unfortunate practice of younger citizens bringing their senile elders to hospitals or charities and essentially abandoning them — generally because they can't afford care anymore.
如今的“棄老”指的是年輕人將家里的老人送到醫院或福利機構，然后就此撒手不管——通常是因為他們再也負擔不起贍養費用。
The trend still isn't widespread yet: One social worker estimates the total number of cases is in the low hundreds each year.
這種風氣目前尚未流行：一個社會工作者估計，每年“棄老”的案件不超過500例。
Prisons are turning into nursing homes.
監獄正變成養老院。
About one-fifth of all crime committed in Japan is done by the elderly. Most of it is petty theft and shoplifting.
日本約有五分之一的犯罪活動是老年人作案。其中大多數是小額偷盜和入店行竊。
As crime rates among the elderly rise, prisons have effectively turned into nursing homes. Guards are made to bathe the inmates and help them get dressed, and experts say living conditions are too good to keep recidivism rates down.
隨著老年人作案率的上升，監獄實際上正轉變成養老院。監獄看守不得不幫囚犯洗澡穿衣，專家說，監獄里的生活條件太好了，所以很難將累犯率降下來。
Normally, younger relatives would take care of the inmates once they're released. But in some cases the costs (and loneliness) are simply too much to bear in a troubled economy, and seniors look to prison as the better alternative.
正常情況下，囚犯被釋放后，會有年輕一些的親人來照看。但是在經濟不景氣的條件下，有些老人出獄后的開支（和孤獨）實在難以承受，所以他們將監獄視為更好的去處。
A doomsday clock counts down the seconds until extinction.
國家消亡的倒計時已經開始。
Over time, low, unchanging fertility rates (without additional immigration) could mean actual extinction for an entire country.
隨著時間流逝，不變的低生育率（又沒有移民流入）將意味著日本整個國家的消失。
In the short term, that could mean losing 34% of the country's population by 2100.
短期來看，這意味著日本人口將在2100年前減少34%。
Taking a longer view, Japanese researchers recently pinned down the expected date of extinction with a doomsday clock. The date, according to the latest fertility rates, is August 12, 3776.
長遠來看，日本研究人員已經用末日鐘算出了日本人滅絕的時間。根據最新的生育率來估算，日本滅絕的日期將是3776年8月12日。
Friends are getting married out of desperation.
絕望的日本人選擇和朋友結婚。
One of the main traits of the demographic time bomb is that young people focus a lot of their time on work instead of socializing, largely to keep up economically.
人口定時炸彈的主要特征之一是年輕人為了保持經濟獨立花很多時間用于工作，而不是社交。
They still want to get married, however, so the compromise they're making is just partnering up with friends.
盡管如此，他們仍然想結婚，所以他們做出的讓步是和朋友組成家庭。
It's a real-life version of that game "If we're both not married by the time we're 40..." — except people are playing it in their late 20s.
這就是那個游戲的現實版：“如果我們40歲前還沒結婚就……”只不過日本人從25歲以后就開始玩了。
Employees are succumbing to 'death from overwork.'
員工們屈服于“過勞死”。
Long work hours are leading to a rise in cases of karoshi, or "death from overwork."
工作時間過長正在導致“過勞死”案件的增多。
A report from October, which examined karoshi and its cause of death, found more than 20% of people in a survey of 10,000 said they worked at least 80 hours of overtime a month — a signal of just how desperate young people are for extra income.
今年十月份的一份研究報告審視了過勞死及死因，發現受訪的1萬人中有超過20%表示，他們一個月至少加班80個小時，這說明年輕人為了多掙點錢是多么拼命。
Japan's government is taking steps to encourage people to leave work on time or take off one day entirely.
日本政府正采取措施鼓勵人們按時下班或休假。
要論世界上壽命最長的國家，日本總能遙遙領先。但是對于生育率極低的日本來說，這一長壽優勢只能加劇惡性循環，甚至催生出了不少怪象，比如，成人紙尿褲銷量超過嬰兒紙尿褲，監獄變成養老院，和朋友結婚等等。專家估算，長此以往，日本人將在3776年滅絕。
Japan is dealing with what economists call a "demographic time bomb."
日本正面臨經濟學家所謂的“人口定時炸彈”威脅。
Through a vicious cycle of low fertility and low consumer spending, the country's economy has gradually shrunk over the last 25 years.
受制于低生育率和低消費性開支的惡性循環，日本的經濟在過去25年正逐漸縮水。
People are living longer, and they're heaping greater social-security costs onto younger generations who aren't having kids to replace them — thereby furthering the cycle.
人們的壽命變長了，老人們滾雪球一樣的社保負擔被轉嫁到了年輕一代的身上，而年輕一代又沒有生育出可以替代自己的孩子，于是這種惡性循環進一步加劇。
Here are some of the most visible signs in daily life that the time bomb is ticking.
以下是最能反映日本人口炸彈危機的日常跡象。
There are now 68,000 people over 100 years old.
現在日本100歲以上的老人已經有68000位。
To put Japan's widespread aging in perspective, 2024 marked the 47th straight year that the country has broken its own record for the number of centenarians, or people living past their 100th birthday.
要想清楚意識到日本普遍老齡化的現狀，有一個事實是你必須知道的：2024年是日本百歲老人數量連續第47年打破紀錄。
In 2024, there were roughly 65,000 centenarians out of the total population of 127 million. The new total for 2024 stands at 67,824, The Asahi Shimbun reported in September.
2024年，日本1.27億人口中，大約有65000位百歲老人。根據《朝日資訊》今年9月報道的新數據，2024年百歲老人總數達到了67824位。
Japan has the highest rate of centenarians out of any country, with 4.8 per 100,000 people. The US, the country with the most overall, has 2.2 per 100,000.
日本的百歲老人占比是全世界最高的，每10萬人中就有4.8個百歲老人。在百歲老人總數最多的美國，每10萬人中才有2.2個百歲老人。
Adult diapers outsell baby diapers.
成人紙尿褲銷量超過嬰兒紙尿褲。
Ever since 2011, sales of adult diapers in Japan have outpaced those of baby diapers.
自從2011年以來，日本成人紙尿褲的銷量就超過了嬰兒紙尿褲。
The trend reflects just how big the cohort of senior citizens is: People over 65 make up a larger demographic than any other in Japan. Of the 127.11 million people, about 26.7% of them are seniors.
這一潮流反映出老年群體是多么龐大：日本65歲以上的人比其他任何年齡段的人都要多。日本共有1.27億人口，而老年人就占了26.7%。
That proportion is up 3.7 percentage points from six years ago.
老年人占的比例相比六年前上升了3.7個百分點。
2024 marked a 117-year low for fertility.
2024年見證了117年來日本生育率的新低。
Ever since 1899, the annual number of births in Japan had exceeded one million — until 2024.
自從1899年以來，日本每年出生的嬰兒人數都超過了100萬——這個趨勢一致持續到2024年。
When government officials conducted a tally of total births last year, they counted about 20,000 shy of the benchmark. The death count, meanwhile, fell at around 1.3 million.
去年政府官員開展了年度出生人口統計，他們發現出生人口比基準少了2萬人。與此同時，死亡人口比往年減少了130萬人。
Young people have started "granny dumping."
年輕人開始“棄老”。
The word ubasute is an old Japanese word that translates to "granny dumping," and according to Japanese news sources, it's making a comeback.
“棄老”是日本的一個古老的詞，可翻譯為“拋棄老奶奶”。據日本媒體報道，這個詞又再度時興起來。
It describes the unfortunate practice of younger citizens bringing their senile elders to hospitals or charities and essentially abandoning them — generally because they can't afford care anymore.
如今的“棄老”指的是年輕人將家里的老人送到醫院或福利機構，然后就此撒手不管——通常是因為他們再也負擔不起贍養費用。
The trend still isn't widespread yet: One social worker estimates the total number of cases is in the low hundreds each year.
這種風氣目前尚未流行：一個社會工作者估計，每年“棄老”的案件不超過500例。
Prisons are turning into nursing homes.
監獄正變成養老院。
About one-fifth of all crime committed in Japan is done by the elderly. Most of it is petty theft and shoplifting.
日本約有五分之一的犯罪活動是老年人作案。其中大多數是小額偷盜和入店行竊。
As crime rates among the elderly rise, prisons have effectively turned into nursing homes. Guards are made to bathe the inmates and help them get dressed, and experts say living conditions are too good to keep recidivism rates down.
隨著老年人作案率的上升，監獄實際上正轉變成養老院。監獄看守不得不幫囚犯洗澡穿衣，專家說，監獄里的生活條件太好了，所以很難將累犯率降下來。
Normally, younger relatives would take care of the inmates once they're released. But in some cases the costs (and loneliness) are simply too much to bear in a troubled economy, and seniors look to prison as the better alternative.
正常情況下，囚犯被釋放后，會有年輕一些的親人來照看。但是在經濟不景氣的條件下，有些老人出獄后的開支（和孤獨）實在難以承受，所以他們將監獄視為更好的去處。
A doomsday clock counts down the seconds until extinction.
國家消亡的倒計時已經開始。
Over time, low, unchanging fertility rates (without additional immigration) could mean actual extinction for an entire country.
隨著時間流逝，不變的低生育率（又沒有移民流入）將意味著日本整個國家的消失。
In the short term, that could mean losing 34% of the country's population by 2100.
短期來看，這意味著日本人口將在2100年前減少34%。
Taking a longer view, Japanese researchers recently pinned down the expected date of extinction with a doomsday clock. The date, according to the latest fertility rates, is August 12, 3776.
長遠來看，日本研究人員已經用末日鐘算出了日本人滅絕的時間。根據最新的生育率來估算，日本滅絕的日期將是3776年8月12日。
Friends are getting married out of desperation.
絕望的日本人選擇和朋友結婚。
One of the main traits of the demographic time bomb is that young people focus a lot of their time on work instead of socializing, largely to keep up economically.
人口定時炸彈的主要特征之一是年輕人為了保持經濟獨立花很多時間用于工作，而不是社交。
They still want to get married, however, so the compromise they're making is just partnering up with friends.
盡管如此，他們仍然想結婚，所以他們做出的讓步是和朋友組成家庭。
It's a real-life version of that game "If we're both not married by the time we're 40..." — except people are playing it in their late 20s.
這就是那個游戲的現實版：“如果我們40歲前還沒結婚就……”只不過日本人從25歲以后就開始玩了。
Employees are succumbing to 'death from overwork.'
員工們屈服于“過勞死”。
Long work hours are leading to a rise in cases of karoshi, or "death from overwork."
工作時間過長正在導致“過勞死”案件的增多。
A report from October, which examined karoshi and its cause of death, found more than 20% of people in a survey of 10,000 said they worked at least 80 hours of overtime a month — a signal of just how desperate young people are for extra income.
今年十月份的一份研究報告審視了過勞死及死因，發現受訪的1萬人中有超過20%表示，他們一個月至少加班80個小時，這說明年輕人為了多掙點錢是多么拼命。
Japan's government is taking steps to encourage people to leave work on time or take off one day entirely.
日本政府正采取措施鼓勵人們按時下班或休假。
