After much contemplation about the deficiencies ofemerging markets as a concept and what would berequired in a more useful descriptor, I believe referring to these investments as Asteriscs, orassets tied to economies of risky countries, does a better job.

在反復(fù)思考了“新興市場這個(gè)概念的種種缺陷，以及一個(gè)更有用的描述詞需要包含哪些要素之后，我認(rèn)為把這些投資稱為Asteriscs(即assets tied to economies of risky countries的首字母縮寫，意為“高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)國家經(jīng)濟(jì)體關(guān)聯(lián)資產(chǎn))更為貼切。

The catchy term emerging markets has been a marketing success. It has also been a poorguide for investors. Above all, it is confusingly inconsistent.

“新興市場這個(gè)抓住想象力的詞是一個(gè)營銷上的成功。但對投資者來說，它是一個(gè)糟糕的指引。最主要的是，這個(gè)詞存在令人困惑的自相矛盾之處。

The term describes characteristics of the actual market: a nascent market with low liquidity.It can also refer to a country: an asset class of an “emerging country. Problematically, theterm is often used in both ways simultaneously. Yet, a country can have several markets(equities, bonds, currencies, real estate and others) with different characteristics.

這個(gè)詞描述了實(shí)際市場的特征：一個(gè)流動(dòng)性較低的新生市場。這個(gè)詞還可以指代一個(gè)國家：某個(gè)“新興國家的一個(gè)資產(chǎn)類別。問題在于，這個(gè)詞往往用來同時(shí)表述這兩層含義。然而，一個(gè)國家可能有幾個(gè)特征各不相同的市場(股票、債券、貨幣、房地產(chǎn)和其他)。

The concept of emerging markets can be misleading. Do markets or countries have toundergo positive transformations to be “emerging? Occasional sarcastic references to“submerging markets are understandable.

新興市場的概念可能產(chǎn)生誤導(dǎo)。市場或者國家必須經(jīng)歷積極的轉(zhuǎn)變才能冠上“新興之名嗎?人們偶爾會(huì)語帶諷刺地提及“下潛市場，這可以理解。

Furthermore, the term emerging markets may make us take too much comfort from itscounterpart, developed markets. “Developed implies a stable equilibrium. Can developedmarkets regress? Recent debt crises in several developed countries indicate this question isnot theoretical.

此外，“新興市場這個(gè)詞可能讓我們對與其對應(yīng)的“發(fā)達(dá)市場過于放心。“發(fā)達(dá)暗示了一種穩(wěn)定的均衡狀態(tài)。發(fā)達(dá)市場是否會(huì)倒退?近年幾個(gè)發(fā)達(dá)國家的債務(wù)危機(jī)表明，這個(gè)問題并非只屬于理論層面。

The description of emerging markets as nascent markets fails to provide their definingcharacteristic. Lower liquidity is not always characteristic of emerging markets, nor is it anattribute exclusive to them.

將新興市場描述成新生的市場未能透徹表述它們的本質(zhì)特征。低流動(dòng)性并不總是新興市場的特性，也并非新興市場特有。

More recently, a different label — frontier markets — has appeared to describe less liquidemerging markets.

近年出現(xiàn)了一個(gè)不同的標(biāo)簽——前沿市場——用來描述流動(dòng)性較低的新興市場。

Defining EM country risks

定義新興市場的國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

A country’s wealth is a good starting point for defining an emerging country. It bundlestogether many attributes, as per capita national income exhibits a strong, yet not perfect,correlation with other characteristics of interest to investors: institutional stability, rule oflaw, economic competitiveness, creditworthiness.

要定義一個(gè)新興國家，該國的財(cái)富是不錯(cuò)的出發(fā)點(diǎn)，它集合了許多屬性，因?yàn)槿司鶉袷杖氡憩F(xiàn)出與投資者感興趣的其他特征很強(qiáng)(盡管并非完美)的關(guān)聯(lián)度：體制穩(wěn)定、法治、經(jīng)濟(jì)競爭力和信譽(yù)。

We can thus start by thinking about emerging markets as a collection of asset classesaffected by developments in non-rich countries.

因此，我們可以先把新興市場設(shè)想成受到不富裕國家發(fā)展影響的一個(gè)資產(chǎn)類別集合。

Viewed this way, the appeal and risks of emerging markets become clearer. The appeal isbased on a promise that economies of emerging countries can grow at higher rates than thoseof their developed counterparts. This promise is embedded in the very definition of anemerging country. A non-rich country is starting with a lower base and has more room tocatch up.

從這個(gè)角度看，新興市場的吸引力和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變得比較清晰。其吸引力基于新興國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度快于發(fā)達(dá)國家的可能性。這種可能性隱含在新興國家的定義之中。一個(gè)起點(diǎn)較低的不富裕國家有更大追趕空間。

The definition also warns us about main investment risks in emerging markets. There isinformation in the fact that these countries are not rich.

這個(gè)定義也提醒我們警惕新興市場的主要投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這些國家不富裕的事實(shí)本身是包含一些信息的。

However, some rich countries facing geopolitical threats, regime-shattering political risk orsevere debt problems could be still classified as emerging.

然而，一些面臨地緣政治威脅、政權(quán)崩塌的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或者嚴(yán)重債務(wù)問題的富國依然可能被劃歸為新興國家。

We need a more comprehensive definition of an emerging country using the presence ofrelatively high country risk as the differentiating criterion. Regardless of their specific nature,country risks share a common characteristic — the potential to affect performance of allasset classes with strong ties to that country.

我們需要將相對較高的國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的存在，作為一個(gè)區(qū)分標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，對新興國家下一個(gè)更為全面的定義。無論其具體性質(zhì)如何，國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有一個(gè)共性，那就是可能影響與該國密切關(guān)聯(lián)的所有資產(chǎn)類別的表現(xiàn)。

Of course, recognising high country risk is easier after the event than before it. Still, at leastone of the following characteristics is present in all cases of elevated country risk:

當(dāng)然，在事后意識到較高的國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比事前容易。話雖如此，所有較高的國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)案例都至少存在以下特征之一：

A country’s wealth below the high income threshold

國家財(cái)富低于高收入門檻

A geopolitical threat

地緣政治威脅

Impaired creditworthiness

信譽(yù)受損

A non-democratic political regime

非民主政體

A geopolitical threat needs no explanation, with wars and lesser types of military conflictsconstituting important risk factors. Impaired creditworthiness, as reflected for example in aspeculative-grade credit rating, is a country risk because default on public debt is a systemicevent that undermines investor confidence, damages the financial system and raises the costof capital. Last, democracies institutionalise uncertainty as elected governments areconstantly changing. Yet it is precisely the flexibility of a democratic system that mitigatesthe risk of a more sizeable political upheaval present in non-democratic regimes.

地緣政治威脅無需解釋，戰(zhàn)爭和較低烈度的軍事沖突構(gòu)成重要的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。就像(舉個(gè)例子)投機(jī)級信用評級所反映的那樣，信譽(yù)受損之所以是國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，是因?yàn)楣矀鶆?wù)違約是一種系統(tǒng)性事件，它將削弱投資者信心、損害金融體系，抬高資本成本。最后，民主政體將不確定性體制化，因?yàn)檫x舉產(chǎn)生的政府總是在變更。然而，也正是民主體制的靈活性，緩解了非民主政體中存在的爆發(fā)更大政治動(dòng)蕩的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

In a world enamoured of acronyms, we can thus conceptualise emerging markets as Asteriscs— assets tied to economies of risky countries.

因此，在一個(gè)醉心于首字母縮略詞的世界里，我們可以將新興市場概念化為Asteriscs——高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)國家經(jīng)濟(jì)體關(guān)聯(lián)資產(chǎn)。

In other words, emerging markets are asset classes with an asterisk next to them whichshould remind investors that, in addition to traditional risks which vary by asset class, theyare also taking on an elevated country risk.

換句話說，新興市場是旁邊加了星號(asterisk，形似Asteriscs)的資產(chǎn)類別，這應(yīng)當(dāng)提醒投資者：除了隨資產(chǎn)類別而各有不同的傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，他們還面對較高的國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Empirical research highlighting the importance of country risks in emerging markets supportsthis approach.

突顯出新興市場國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)重要性的實(shí)證研究，支持這一做法。

Thinking of emerging markets as Asteriscs illuminates their two roles in a portfolio. First, bytaking on elevated country risks, emerging markets can potentially enhance returns. Second,Asteriscs may also diversify the country risk levels within a portfolio.

將新興市場想成Asteriscs表明了它們在投資組合中的雙重角色。首先，較高的國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)意味著，新興市場有望帶來更高回報(bào)。第二，Asteriscs或許也能分散一個(gè)投資組合內(nèi)部的國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

This is a potentially significant benefit, considering the home bias of many portfolios. It alsomakes accommodation for the fact that some developed economies are moving fast in thedirection of becoming Asteriscs.

考慮到許多投資組合的本土偏向，這是一個(gè)潛在的重大好處。這個(gè)概念還顧及這樣一個(gè)事實(shí)，即某些發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體正朝著Asteriscs的方向快速轉(zhuǎn)型。

After much contemplation about the deficiencies ofemerging markets as a concept and what would berequired in a more useful descriptor, I believe referring to these investments as Asteriscs, orassets tied to economies of risky countries, does a better job.

在反復(fù)思考了“新興市場這個(gè)概念的種種缺陷，以及一個(gè)更有用的描述詞需要包含哪些要素之后，我認(rèn)為把這些投資稱為Asteriscs(即assets tied to economies of risky countries的首字母縮寫，意為“高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)國家經(jīng)濟(jì)體關(guān)聯(lián)資產(chǎn))更為貼切。

The catchy term emerging markets has been a marketing success. It has also been a poorguide for investors. Above all, it is confusingly inconsistent.

“新興市場這個(gè)抓住想象力的詞是一個(gè)營銷上的成功。但對投資者來說，它是一個(gè)糟糕的指引。最主要的是，這個(gè)詞存在令人困惑的自相矛盾之處。

The term describes characteristics of the actual market: a nascent market with low liquidity.It can also refer to a country: an asset class of an “emerging country. Problematically, theterm is often used in both ways simultaneously. Yet, a country can have several markets(equities, bonds, currencies, real estate and others) with different characteristics.

這個(gè)詞描述了實(shí)際市場的特征：一個(gè)流動(dòng)性較低的新生市場。這個(gè)詞還可以指代一個(gè)國家：某個(gè)“新興國家的一個(gè)資產(chǎn)類別。問題在于，這個(gè)詞往往用來同時(shí)表述這兩層含義。然而，一個(gè)國家可能有幾個(gè)特征各不相同的市場(股票、債券、貨幣、房地產(chǎn)和其他)。

The concept of emerging markets can be misleading. Do markets or countries have toundergo positive transformations to be “emerging? Occasional sarcastic references to“submerging markets are understandable.

新興市場的概念可能產(chǎn)生誤導(dǎo)。市場或者國家必須經(jīng)歷積極的轉(zhuǎn)變才能冠上“新興之名嗎?人們偶爾會(huì)語帶諷刺地提及“下潛市場，這可以理解。

Furthermore, the term emerging markets may make us take too much comfort from itscounterpart, developed markets. “Developed implies a stable equilibrium. Can developedmarkets regress? Recent debt crises in several developed countries indicate this question isnot theoretical.

此外，“新興市場這個(gè)詞可能讓我們對與其對應(yīng)的“發(fā)達(dá)市場過于放心。“發(fā)達(dá)暗示了一種穩(wěn)定的均衡狀態(tài)。發(fā)達(dá)市場是否會(huì)倒退?近年幾個(gè)發(fā)達(dá)國家的債務(wù)危機(jī)表明，這個(gè)問題并非只屬于理論層面。

The description of emerging markets as nascent markets fails to provide their definingcharacteristic. Lower liquidity is not always characteristic of emerging markets, nor is it anattribute exclusive to them.

將新興市場描述成新生的市場未能透徹表述它們的本質(zhì)特征。低流動(dòng)性并不總是新興市場的特性，也并非新興市場特有。

More recently, a different label — frontier markets — has appeared to describe less liquidemerging markets.

近年出現(xiàn)了一個(gè)不同的標(biāo)簽——前沿市場——用來描述流動(dòng)性較低的新興市場。

Defining EM country risks

定義新興市場的國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

A country’s wealth is a good starting point for defining an emerging country. It bundlestogether many attributes, as per capita national income exhibits a strong, yet not perfect,correlation with other characteristics of interest to investors: institutional stability, rule oflaw, economic competitiveness, creditworthiness.

要定義一個(gè)新興國家，該國的財(cái)富是不錯(cuò)的出發(fā)點(diǎn)，它集合了許多屬性，因?yàn)槿司鶉袷杖氡憩F(xiàn)出與投資者感興趣的其他特征很強(qiáng)(盡管并非完美)的關(guān)聯(lián)度：體制穩(wěn)定、法治、經(jīng)濟(jì)競爭力和信譽(yù)。

We can thus start by thinking about emerging markets as a collection of asset classesaffected by developments in non-rich countries.

因此，我們可以先把新興市場設(shè)想成受到不富裕國家發(fā)展影響的一個(gè)資產(chǎn)類別集合。

Viewed this way, the appeal and risks of emerging markets become clearer. The appeal isbased on a promise that economies of emerging countries can grow at higher rates than thoseof their developed counterparts. This promise is embedded in the very definition of anemerging country. A non-rich country is starting with a lower base and has more room tocatch up.

從這個(gè)角度看，新興市場的吸引力和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變得比較清晰。其吸引力基于新興國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度快于發(fā)達(dá)國家的可能性。這種可能性隱含在新興國家的定義之中。一個(gè)起點(diǎn)較低的不富裕國家有更大追趕空間。

The definition also warns us about main investment risks in emerging markets. There isinformation in the fact that these countries are not rich.

這個(gè)定義也提醒我們警惕新興市場的主要投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這些國家不富裕的事實(shí)本身是包含一些信息的。

However, some rich countries facing geopolitical threats, regime-shattering political risk orsevere debt problems could be still classified as emerging.

然而，一些面臨地緣政治威脅、政權(quán)崩塌的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或者嚴(yán)重債務(wù)問題的富國依然可能被劃歸為新興國家。

We need a more comprehensive definition of an emerging country using the presence ofrelatively high country risk as the differentiating criterion. Regardless of their specific nature,country risks share a common characteristic — the potential to affect performance of allasset classes with strong ties to that country.

我們需要將相對較高的國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的存在，作為一個(gè)區(qū)分標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，對新興國家下一個(gè)更為全面的定義。無論其具體性質(zhì)如何，國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有一個(gè)共性，那就是可能影響與該國密切關(guān)聯(lián)的所有資產(chǎn)類別的表現(xiàn)。

Of course, recognising high country risk is easier after the event than before it. Still, at leastone of the following characteristics is present in all cases of elevated country risk:

當(dāng)然，在事后意識到較高的國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比事前容易。話雖如此，所有較高的國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)案例都至少存在以下特征之一：

A country’s wealth below the high income threshold

國家財(cái)富低于高收入門檻

A geopolitical threat

地緣政治威脅

Impaired creditworthiness

信譽(yù)受損

A non-democratic political regime

非民主政體

A geopolitical threat needs no explanation, with wars and lesser types of military conflictsconstituting important risk factors. Impaired creditworthiness, as reflected for example in aspeculative-grade credit rating, is a country risk because default on public debt is a systemicevent that undermines investor confidence, damages the financial system and raises the costof capital. Last, democracies institutionalise uncertainty as elected governments areconstantly changing. Yet it is precisely the flexibility of a democratic system that mitigatesthe risk of a more sizeable political upheaval present in non-democratic regimes.

地緣政治威脅無需解釋，戰(zhàn)爭和較低烈度的軍事沖突構(gòu)成重要的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。就像(舉個(gè)例子)投機(jī)級信用評級所反映的那樣，信譽(yù)受損之所以是國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，是因?yàn)楣矀鶆?wù)違約是一種系統(tǒng)性事件，它將削弱投資者信心、損害金融體系，抬高資本成本。最后，民主政體將不確定性體制化，因?yàn)檫x舉產(chǎn)生的政府總是在變更。然而，也正是民主體制的靈活性，緩解了非民主政體中存在的爆發(fā)更大政治動(dòng)蕩的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

In a world enamoured of acronyms, we can thus conceptualise emerging markets as Asteriscs— assets tied to economies of risky countries.

因此，在一個(gè)醉心于首字母縮略詞的世界里，我們可以將新興市場概念化為Asteriscs——高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)國家經(jīng)濟(jì)體關(guān)聯(lián)資產(chǎn)。

In other words, emerging markets are asset classes with an asterisk next to them whichshould remind investors that, in addition to traditional risks which vary by asset class, theyare also taking on an elevated country risk.

換句話說，新興市場是旁邊加了星號(asterisk，形似Asteriscs)的資產(chǎn)類別，這應(yīng)當(dāng)提醒投資者：除了隨資產(chǎn)類別而各有不同的傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，他們還面對較高的國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Empirical research highlighting the importance of country risks in emerging markets supportsthis approach.

突顯出新興市場國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)重要性的實(shí)證研究，支持這一做法。

Thinking of emerging markets as Asteriscs illuminates their two roles in a portfolio. First, bytaking on elevated country risks, emerging markets can potentially enhance returns. Second,Asteriscs may also diversify the country risk levels within a portfolio.

將新興市場想成Asteriscs表明了它們在投資組合中的雙重角色。首先，較高的國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)意味著，新興市場有望帶來更高回報(bào)。第二，Asteriscs或許也能分散一個(gè)投資組合內(nèi)部的國別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

This is a potentially significant benefit, considering the home bias of many portfolios. It alsomakes accommodation for the fact that some developed economies are moving fast in thedirection of becoming Asteriscs.

考慮到許多投資組合的本土偏向，這是一個(gè)潛在的重大好處。這個(gè)概念還顧及這樣一個(gè)事實(shí)，即某些發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體正朝著Asteriscs的方向快速轉(zhuǎn)型。